Research Initiative to Understand & Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics

In its Preface, The 9/11 Commission Report states: We learned that the institutions charted with protecting ... national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it (2004: xvi). Given current realities and uncertainties "better preparedness" can be achieved by identifying, controlling and managing the elusive linkages and situational factors that impact state stability and fuel state decay and destruction - and hence create new threats to the nation's security. We propose to focus on the use of system dynamics modeling techniques to help understand, measure and model the complex dynamics shaping state stability, initially for two regions. We will specifically consider the impacts of unanticipated disruptions, such as a tsunami and its aftermath, on the dynamics of the two regions. For each region, we will deliver a detailed country model, including 3-5 futures predictions in the 6-12 month range along with an analysis of conditions and casual links between predicted futures plus corresponding mitigated options

The Interplay of Web Aggregation and Regulation

The development of web technology has led to the emergence of web aggregation, a service that collects existing web data and turns them into more useful information. We review the development of both comparison and relationship aggregation and discuss their impacts on various stakeholders. The aggregator’s capability of transparently extracting web data has raised challenging issues in database and privacy protection. Consequently, new regulations are introduced or being proposed. We analyze the interactions between aggregation and related policies and provide our insights about the implications of new policies on the development of web aggregation.Singapore-MIT Alliance (SMA

Context Mediation Demonstration of Counter-Terrorism Intelligence (CTI) Integration

Examination of intelligence failures prior to the 9/11/01 attacks made clear it that lack of effective information exchange among government agencies hindered the capability of identifying potential threats and preventing terrorist actions. A 2002 National Research Council study noted that “Although there are many private and public databases that contain information potentially relevant to counterterrorism programs, they lack the necessary context definitions (i.e., metadata) and access tools to enable interoperation with other databases and the extraction of meaningful and timely information.”[14] This report clearly recognized the importance of problems that the semantic data integration research community has been studying

Context Mediation Demonstration of Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Integration

In this report, we demonstrate the applicability and value of the context mediation approach in facilitating the effective and correct use of counter-terrorism intelligence information coming from diverse heterogeneous sources

Decision-making and biases in cybersecurity capability development: Evidence from a simulation game experiment

We developed a simulation game to study the effectiveness of decision-makers in overcoming two complexities in building cybersecurity capabilities: potential delays in capability development; and uncertainties in predicting cyber incidents. Analyzing 1479 simulation runs, we compared the performances of a group of experienced professionals with those of an inexperienced control group. Experienced subjects did not understand the mechanisms of delays any better than inexperienced subjects; however, experienced subjects were better able to learn the need for proactive decision-making through an iterative process. Both groups exhibited similar errors when dealing with the uncertainty of cyber incidents. Our findings highlight the importance of training for decision-makers with a focus on systems thinking skills, and lay the groundwork for future research on uncovering mental biases about the complexities of cybersecurity. Keywords: Cybersecurity; Decision-making; Simulation; Capability developmen

Chemical Abundances of the Leo II Dwarf Galaxy

We use previously-published moderate-resolution spectra in combination with stellar atmosphere models to derive the first measured chemical abundance ratios in the Leo II dSph galaxy. We find that for spectra with SNR > 24, we are able to measure abundances from weak Ti, Fe and Mg lines located near the calcium infrared triplet (CaT). We also quantify and discuss discrepancies between the metallicities measured from Fe I lines and those estimated from the CaT features. We find that while the most metal-poor ([Fe/H] <-2.0]) Leo II stars have Ca and Ti abundance ratios similar to those of Galactic globular clusters, the more metal-rich stars show a gradual decline of Ti, Mg and Ca abundance ratio with increasing metallicity. Finding these trends in this distant and apparently dynamically stable dSph galaxy supports the hypothesis that the slow chemical enrichment histories of the dSph galaxies is universal, independent of any interaction with the Milky Way. Combining our spectroscopic abundances with published broadband photometry and updated isochrones, we are able to approximate stellar ages for our bright RGB stars to a relative precision of 2-3 Gyr. While the derived age-metallicity relationship of Leo II hints at some amount of slow enrichment, the data are still statistically consistent with no enrichment over the history of Leo II.Comment: Accepted to A